The potential public health and economic value of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine in the United States: Use of cost-effectiveness modeling to inform vaccination prioritization

BackgroundResearchers are working at unprecedented speed to develop a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. We aimed to assess the value of a hypothetical vaccine and its potential public health impact when prioritization is required due to supply constraints.MethodsA Markov cohort model was used to estimate COVID-19 related direct medical costs and deaths in the United States (US), with and without implementation of a 60% efficacious vaccine. To prioritize the vaccine under constrained supply, the population was divided into tiers based on age; risk and age; and occupation and age; and outcomes were compared across one year under various supply assumptions. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained versus no vaccine was calculated for the entire adult population and for each tier in the three prioritization schemes.ResultsThe incremental cost per QALY gained for the US adult population was $8,200 versus no vaccination. For the tiers at highest risk of complications from COVID-19, such as those ages 65 years and older, vaccination was cost-saving compared to no vaccination. The cost per QALY gained increased to over $94,000 for those with a low risk of hospitalization and death following infection. Results were most sensitive to infection incidence, vaccine price, the cost of treating COVID-19, and vaccine efficacy. Under the most optimistic supply scenario, the hypothetical vaccine may prevent 31% of expected deaths. As supply becomes more constrained, only 23% of deaths may be prevented. In lower supply scenarios, prioritization becomes more important to maximize the number of deaths prevented.ConclusionsA COVID-19 vaccine is predicted to be good value for money (cost per QALY gained <$50,000). The speed at which an effective vaccine can be made available will determine how much morbidity and mortality may be prevented in the US.     

Normative values for the Sensory Organization Test in an active duty military cohort

BackgroundComputerized dynamic posturography is commonly used to assess balance in service members, but normative values for the military population have not been established.Research questionWhat are the normative values for the Motor Control Test (MCT), Sensory Organization Test (SOT) and the enhanced SOT (eSOT) within the military population and at which point do they differ?MethodsCross-sectional study. 237 active duty service members (78 % male) completed the MCT, SOT and the eSOT with the sway manipulated at a gain of 1.2, 1.4, 1.6, 1.8, or 2.0. A Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the means of men and women for the SOT and MCT composite scores. A Kruskal-Wallis H test was used to compare the means of age groups for the SOT composite score. An independent t-test was used to compare the SOT composite scores from our military population to the manufacturer’s normative (civilian) data. The means and standard deviations for the eSOT scores were reported for each gain. Paired-samples t-tests were performed to compare the SOT composite score with the eSOT composite score for each level of gain.ResultsThere was no difference between SOT composite scores for men and women (Mann-Whitney U = 4363.50, p = 0.19) or among age groups (Kruskal-Wallis = 2.77, p = 0.25). The mean SOT composite scores were not different from the manufacturer’s normative values (p = 0.155). SOT composite scores were significantly higher than eSOT composite scores for gains of 1.4 (t = 3.16, p = 0.003), 1.6 (t = 5.73, p < 0.001), 1.8 (t = 5.26, p < 0.001) and 2.0 (t = 5.89, p < 0.001). MCT composite scores were lower in the 18−26 year old than the 36−45 year old age group (p = 0.013).SignificanceThis study establishes normative values for the MCT, SOT and eSOT in active duty military service members. The results suggest that the manufacturer’s normal values are appropriate for making judgments about the postural stability of service members.     

LEOPARD综合征一家系PTPN11基因突变分析

【摘要】 目的 明确1个LEOPARD综合征家系的PTPN11基因突变。方法 对中国科学院大学宁波华美医院确诊的1例LEOPARD综合征先证者的家系进行现场调查。提取家系内4例患者、2例健康成员及与该家系无关的100例健康对照外周血标本。PCR扩增PTPN11基因所有外显子，使用Sanger测序法进行突变位点分析。结果 该家系3代14人，其中6人患病（男3例，女3例），符合常染色体显性遗传。患者皮损主要分布于面部、躯干和四肢，具有特殊面容及心血管系统异常。4例患者存在PTPN11基因的错义突变c.1632G＞T（p.R558L），导致第558位由精氨酸变为亮氨酸，该突变既往未曾报道。该家系2例健康成员及100例健康对照未发现PTPN11基因突变。结论 该LEOPARD综合征家系患者PTPN11基因13号外显子发生c.1632G＞T错义突变，可能是该家系患者发病的分子基础。     

慢性阻塞性肺疾病合并侵袭性肺曲霉菌病的临床分析

目的探析慢性阻塞性肺疾病合并侵袭性肺曲霉菌病患者的临床特点。方法对医院2018年2月—2019年12月间收治的慢性阻塞性肺疾病合并侵袭性肺曲霉菌病患者24例相关临床数据进行回顾性分析,归纳此类患者的临床特点,以期为以后收治此类患者在诊疗上提供可参考数据。结果慢性阻塞性肺疾病合并侵袭性肺曲霉菌病患者典型临床症状为肺部罗音、呼吸障碍、胸痛、咳嗽咳痰、发热。影像学检查后典型表现为肺部炎性渗出、空洞、结节、实变。经过积极治疗后有8例患者判定为治疗有效。结论收治慢性阻塞性肺疾病合并侵袭性肺曲霉菌病患者应该做到早期阶段准确诊断,积极治疗,是保障预后的重点。     

基于内容分析法的中医类APP现状分析

随着手机APP对人们日常工作和生活方式的改变，中医类APP日益得到关注。文章基于内容分析法对目前中医类APP现状进行梳理，分析存在的问题，对未来中医类APP的设计和开发提出建议。以每一个APP为分析单元，从一般情况、主要功能、用户评价等3个方面进行分析，建立了7个维度22个细目的编码体系，进行频数统计和分析。发现目前中医类APP功能丰富，用户广泛，成为中医药服务及中医科学传播的重要载体，具有良好的用户粘度及巨大市场需求，但存在质量良莠不齐、内容资源不佳等问题。提出中医类APP开发应符合中医药发展战略的方向，应进一步规范中医类APP隐私政策和相关法律法规；并探索中医类APP的评价标准和评价指标体系，促进和规范中医类APP的质量提升和不断发展。     

Prognostic Model and Nomogram for Estimating Survival of Small Breast Cancer: A SEER-based Analysis

BackgroundDifferent clinicopathologic characteristics could contribute to inconsistent prognoses of small breast neoplasms (T1a/T1b). This study was done to conduct a retrospective analysis and establish a clinical prediction model to predict individual survival outcomes of patients with small carcinomas of the breast.Materials and MethodsBased on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, eligible patients with small breast carcinomas were analyzed. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were performed to clarify the indicators of overall survival. Pooling risk factors enabled nomograms to be constructed and further predicted 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival of patients with small breast cancer. The model was internally validated for discrimination and calibration.ResultsA total of 17,543 patients with small breast neoplasms diagnosed between 2013 and 2016 were enrolled. Histologic grade, lymph node stage, estrogen receptor or progesterone receptor status, and molecular subtypes of breast cancer were regarded as the risk factors of prognosis in a Cox proportional hazards model (P < .05). A nomogram was constructed to give predictive accuracy toward individual survival rate of patients with small breast neoplasms.ConclusionsThis prognostic model provided a robust and effective method to predict the prognosis of patients with small breast cancer.